Trade Alert 12/2/2024

Hello Investors,
A couple of changes today. First, we exited the NVO put butterfly as it’s moving in the wrong direction. We were able to exit at around breakeven thanks to some benefits from vega (volatility).
Sell to close: NVO Dec 20th (monthly) 105.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Buy to close: NVO Dec 20th (monthly) 95.00 strike put (ratio of 2)
Sell to close: NVO Dec 20th (monthly) 85.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Credit: 2.26
Loss of -0.09 or -$9.00 per spread
Second, we entered into a new trade idea in PLTR. This is a seasonal trade idea and looks to take advantage of the “january effect”. If we see a relatively sideways stock price into year-end and then some selling in the new year, that would be ideal.
Buy to open: PLTR May 16th (monthly) 70.00 strike put
Sell to open: PLTR Dec 27th (weekly) 67.00 strike put
Debit: 8.78
Max risk = 8.78 or $878.00 per spread
Have a great week!

Trade Alert 11/25/2024

Hello Investors,
Today we entered into a new trade in NVO. This company is the maker of drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. This stock has been in a downtrend for the past few months. The “measured move” target is down near 95/share. If/when it gets to that price it could be interesting. I have owned some LLY but don’t personally own any NVO stock. The trade details as follows:
Buy to open: NVO Dec 20th (monthly) 105.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Sell to open: NVO Dec 20th (monthly) 95.00 strike put (ratio of 2)
Buy to open: NVO Dec 20th (monthly) 85.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Debit: 2.35
Max risk = 2.35 or $235.00 per spread
Max reward = 7.65 or $765.00 per spread
Have a great thanksgiving!

Trade Alert 11/22/2024

We got filled on all of our covered calls on Monday except for NUE. We have changed game plans slightly as shown below.

Buy to open: NUE Dec 20th (monthly) 175.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Sell to open: NUE Dec 20th (monthly) 180.00 strike call (ratio of 2)
Credit:  0.12 – this order has filled
We own 50 shares of stock. So, we will still end up “naked” 50 shares. However, this gives us even more room in the event of the stock spiking higher!

Trade Alert 11/18/2024

We passed November monthly options expiration. So, we have replaced those covered calls as follows today in class.
Sold to open: APA Jan 17th (monthly) 27.50 strike call
Credit: 0.31 – this order has filled
Sold to open: EQT Jan 17th (monthly) 50.00 strike call
Credit: 0.43 – this order has filled
Sold to open: INTC Jan 17th (monthly) 30.00 strike call
Credit: 0.41 – this order has filled
Sold to open: OXY Jan 17th (monthly) 57.50 strike call
Credit: 0.46 – this order has filled
Sold to open: X Jan 17th (monthly) 50.00 strike call
Credit: 1.00 – this order has filled
Sell to open: NUE Dec 20th (monthly) 175.00 strike call
Credit: 0.45 – this order is pending and not filled
Added a 1×2 call spread in CCJ
Bought to open: CCJ Jan 17th (monthly) 60.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Sold to open: CCJ Jan 17th (monthly) 65.00 strike call (ratio of 2)
Credit: 0.05 – this order has filled

Trade Alert 11/15/2024

We have arrived at expiration. Below is a list of November monthly option expiration positions. Most of which will need no adjustment. EQT is listed below and will need to be monitored and potentially adjusted. Details shown below.

AAPL 190-170-150 put butterfly will expire OTM – needs no adjustment
APA 30.00 strike covered call will expire OTM – needs no adjustment
CCJ 60.00 strike covered call will expire OTM – needs no adjustment
INTC 26.00 strike covered call will expire OTM – needs no adjustment
NUE 175.00 strike covered call will expire OTM – needs no adjustment
OXY 52.50-57.50 1×2 call spread will expire OTM – needs no adjustment
X 47.00 strike covered call will expire OTM – needs no adjustment

EQT we really have two positions a covered call and a call spread. However, at this point we can think of the position as a simple spread. We are short 1 of the 42.00 strike call and long 1 of the 42.50 strike call. Here are the scenarios.

EQT is below 42/share = do nothing as both calls will expire OTM
EQT is above 42.50/share = do nothing as both calls will exercise against each other
EQT is between 42.00 and 42.50 per share = buy back the 42.00 strike call and the 42.50 call will expire OTM.
We won’t know for sure, which of these 3 outcomes will happen until the end of the day. We won’t be sending an additional newsletter but will simply follow that approach detailed above at the end of the trading session.

Trade Alert 11/14/2024

We have a few positions we are monitoring more closely into expiration tomorrow EQT, INTC and OXY. The rest are unlikely to need any adjustment.

We took profits in our GLD put butterfly today. This trade was a little mis-timed in the short term. However, ultimately the trade played out somewhat as expected.
Sell to close:  GLD Mar 21st (monthly) 235.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Buy to close: GLD Mar 21st (monthly) 220.00 strike put (ratio of 2)
Sell to close:  GLD Mar 21st (monthly) 205.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Credit:  2.95
Profit of $0.90 or $90.00 per spread traded

Trade Alert 11/11/2024

Hello Investors,

We have decided to close the butterfly on AMZN for a small loss as discussed in class, details as follows:

Sell to close:  AMZN Nov 29th (weekly) 215.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Buy to close: AMZN Nov 29th (weekly) 225.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Sell to close:  AMZN Nov 29th (weekly) 235.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Credit:  0.93 – order has filled
Taking a loss of -0.37 or -$37.00 per spread

We have hedged our EQT covered call first through buying a call spread. The call spread has been filled and we are in.
Buy to open: EQT Nov 15th (monthly) 42.50 strike call
Sell to open: EQT Nov 15th (monthly) 44.00 strike call
Debit:  0.73 – order has filled
Max risk = 0.73 or $73.00 (if the stock is below 42.50/share)
Max reward = 0.77 or $77.00 (if the stock is above 44.00/share)

We had placed a pending order to sell a put in EQT. The order has not filled at our credit price and we have decided to cancel the order going forward.
Cancel: EQT selling of the 42.00 strike put

Trade Alert 11/8/2024

We made the right call in exiting our long volatility trades earlier this week. Specifically closing the VIX and SPY trades. The volatility crush has even exceeded our discussed expectations. Today we are adding a couple of new trades as follows:

Buying an AMZN call butterfly spread. This is a low probability trade. However, the stock has just triggered above an RSI 70 (gone into overdrive) and if momentum continues higher could be a great way to capture it.
Buy to open: AMZN Nov 29th (weekly) 215.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Sell to open: AMZN Nov 29th (weekly) 225.00 strike call (ratio of 2)
Buy to open: AMZN Nov 29th (weekly) 235.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Debit: 1.30
Max risk = 1.30 or $130.00 per spread
Max reward = 8.70 or $870.00 per spread

We also bought a put butterfly spread in MTCH. However, the way we executed into this trade was a little different. We purchased the January 22.50 strike put first for 0.07 per contract. Then we got filled on the upper 1×2 put spread for 1.06 debit. The liquidity in the lower strike puts is not great (wide bid/ask spreads). So, purchasing the 22.50 strike put was better than the 20.00 strike put. Because they were basically the same amount of money. We got that order filled first and then did the upper strikes together. That completed the butterfly.
Buy to open: MTCH Jan 17th (monthly) 30.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Sell to open: MTCH Jan 17th (monthly) 25.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Buy to open: MTCH Jan 17th (monthly) 22.50 strike put (ratio of 1)
Debit: 1.13
Max risk = 1.13 or $113.00 per spread
Max reward = 3.87 or $387.00 per spread
This trade is an uneven butterfly. There is 5.00 distance on the upper strikes and only 2.50 distance on the lower strikes. That means we don’t have risk (only reward) as the stock falls. Our risk is solely if the stock goes sideways/higher in price.

Trade Alert 11/4/2024

Hello Investors,
The class today and changes we made to the portfolio are probably counterintuitive. We are exiting volatility trades going into what could be a big volatility event with both the Elections and Fed meeting this week. In addition, we have a pending order to buy a put spread in the VIX only if we can get in at our price. The thought process and analysis was described in class and the recording is included below.
Took profits in our VIX call butterfly as follows:
Sell to close: VIX Nov 20th (monthly) 20.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Buy to close: VIX Nov 20th (monthly) 30.00 strike call (ratio of 2)
Sell to close: VIX Nov 20th (monthly) 40.00 strike call (ratio of 1)
Credit: 1.06 – order has been filled
This locked-in a profit of +0.48 or +$48.00 per spread
Took profits in our SPY put butterfly as follows:
Sell to close: SPY March 21st (monthly) 560.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Buy to close: SPY March 21st (monthly) 540.00 strike put (ratio of 2)
Sell to close: SPY March 21st (monthly) 520.00 strike put (ratio of 1)
Credit: 1.38 – order has been filled
This locked-in a profit of +0.38 or +$38.00 per spread
We have a pending order to get into a bear put spread in VIX, this is a day order only and if not filled it will be canceled.
Buy to open: VIX Nov 20th (monthly) 18.00 strike put
Sell to open: VIX Nov 20th (monthly) 15.00 strike put
Debit: 0.94 – day order only and this is pending (has not filled)
Max risk = 0.94 or $94.00 per spread
Max reward = 2.06 or $206.00 per spread
Have a great week!

Trade Alert 10/28/2024

Hello Investors,
Today we discussed our program and some of the goals associated with it. In addition, we highlighted the volatility around next week. First we have the Presidential elections followed by the Fed meetings on Thursday. There are a wide spread possibility of outcomes. If things run smoothly, expect the VIX to implode a little bit. If we get chaos, then expect a nice sized spike in the VIX. We are looking at a couple of low risk/high reward opportunities so stay tuned.
We added 50 more shares of CCJ today at 54.46 per share. That takes us up to our goal of 200 shares owned.
Have a great week!